If there’s been any theme on our video game posts over the last few weeks, it’s that games can be useful, be they as a social outlet, an educational tool or a platform for persuasion.
Today we’ll be looking at a game that harnesses players to make something that the parent company can then sell to other people. It’s called Inkling Markets, and it’s a virtual stock market for predictions of the future.
Here’s how the game works: Players are given $5,000 in virtual currency. You then invest in whether or not something will happen. Think you know who will win the NBA championships? Put money down on it.
Predictions that are more popular cost more to invest in. In this way, the conventional wisdom of the probability of something happening emerges from the stock price. Players who think they know better can try to exploit discrepancies between the market value and the real value. When the event finally happens, such as someone winning the NBA championship, one possible answer goes to 100% and the rest fall to zero, and the savvy collect their rewards.
Part of the genius of the game is that it’s self-weighted. Bigger trades swing the market price of prediction more. Successful players with a proven track record of making the right picks have more money with which to make bigger trades. Players will naturally self-select to give predictions about which they have the most expertise.
Not everyone agrees on the usefulness of this method as a decision-making tool. Wired did a tough take on prediction markets, which Inkling responded to in their blog. The company makes its bread by providing companies with internal prediction markets to use as feedback for decision making. There’s no indication whether or not they use any data from the public game, or if it’s just a marketing and testing tool for their other products.
Either way, I think it’s a fun game. I’m up $134 since yesterday, myself.
Popularity: 2% [?]



