If the Golden Globes were bleak, then this year’s Oscars are going to be downright depressing. Maybe it’s because we expect so much of them. But this year’s list of snubs is even longer than usual; it’s like the Academy blew every ounce of hip-ness on last year’s Juno nomination for Best Picture. This year it’s all dramas, a few of them quite obscure:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

While Slumdog has garnered some attention lately and a few re-releases in theaters, and Benjamin Button had a bit of star power, the rest of the this lot is fairly unknown to the moviegoing public. Frost/Nixon and Milk, the best-known of the remaining three, grossing only $14,596,107 and $24,667,038 respectively. If you add all five grosses together you still won’t reach the heights scaled by The Dark Knight, the massively hyped and massively popular Batman Begins sequel that caused a rift amongst critics as soon as the words “best picture” escaped someone’s keyboard.

The only major nomination garnered by Christopher Nolan’s superhero spectacle was Best Supporting Actor for the late Heath Ledger, which, given the tragic nature of his death, was expected. Some of the bolder critics predicted that it might earn a Best Picture nom: after all, it wasn’t just a Batman flick. It was a cultural phenomenon. With an overall critical approval rating of 94%, it seemed to bridge the gap between popular approval and art.

Apparently not.

In any sane society, it wouldn’t make sense for the most prestigous film award show to exclusively honor movies that no one saw. Luckily for the Oscars, we don’t live in a sane society. The reason behind many major “snubs” is less sinister than it seems: really, it’s a matter of probability.

The Trouble With DVDs

Academy members are exposed to hundreds of films every year, many of which never garner a wide release in theaters. When members of the Academy pick their favorite films, they’re not taking popular opinion into account - as a result, we end up with a list of nominees that much of the moviegoing public hasn’t even had the chance to see. The problem isn’t that the Academy sees too much: it’s that we see too little.

When home video (and later DVD) became such a widely-used format in homes across America, this problem could have been easily solved. But instead of taking the opportunity to cash in on impulse buys, the studios took their sweet time bringing theater releases to video. The result: video became a sort of supporting run for the film instead of a primary method of release.

You won’t see this in other media: bands go on tour to promote their new albums, not the other way around. In today’s economy particularly, people want something tangible for their money - dropping $20 on a DVD is much easier than dropping $20 on a pair of movie tickets. When you factor in that many Oscar noms don’t even make it anywhere but the major cities, the discrepancy between the Academy and us normal folks makes perfect sense.

The Piracy Problem

Inevitably, the only way many people have access to Oscar noms pre-DVD-release is an illegal one. Though studios keep taking steps to combat piracy, both in theaters and with screener DVDs, piracy thrives. Rather than trying to combat it with “YOU WOULDN’T STEAL A CAR” ads and other scare tactics, the studios should take a hint: the reason film piracy is so rampant is because there’s a demand.

If legitimate DVD releases were available as soon as films were in theaters, piracy would be pointless. The studios would make money instead of creating criminals by guarding their films like government secrets.

But What About the Theaters?

Movie theaters make almost all of their profits off of concession sales, but in order to sell food, they still need people to come in and buy tickets. What would become of theaters if the option to watch films on DVD was available immediately, instead of 3-6 months after their theatrical run? Would people overwhelmingly choose the at-home experience over a trip to the theater?

Here’s the facts. Since the massive economic downturn that first hit last autumn, both DVD and movie ticket sales have gone down dramatically. This is a reality that the industry has to deal with anyway. If theaters are successful in recreating and rebranding themselves as An Evening of Entertainment instead of A Scummy Place to Go Watch Some Movies or Something, then DVD availability will just be another consideration in the process rather than a killing blow.

It would even be possible to partner with theaters in the sale of DVDs. A vending machine at the exit door would capitalize on impulse buys - a small discount for the ticket-buyers, a small cut to the theater, and the studios are still making a profit on those who might not have otherwise bought the DVD.

Final Thoughts

“Oscar snubs” of popular movies are just a symptom of a much larger problem: most quality cinema never makes it to the masses. With DVD being such a widely-used format, it just makes sense to use it to promote availability of movies rather than confining profits to a small amount of theaters and forcing film fans into piracy. But will the big studios catch on to this? Only time will tell.

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